Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.055057 0.062660 0.071179 0.081478 0.093654 0.107665 0.125116
2026-01-18 0.045373 0.055206 0.067173 0.082981 0.103567 0.129830 0.166456
2026-01-25 0.037257 0.047934 0.061873 0.081766 0.110038 0.149747 0.211552
2026-02-01 0.030451 0.041105 0.055891 0.078506 0.113335 0.166936 0.259915
2026-02-08 0.026314 0.037189 0.053201 0.079431 0.123275 0.197555 0.342628
2026-02-15 0.022985 0.033878 0.050819 0.080436 0.134049 0.234098 0.455380
2026-02-22 0.020454 0.031361 0.049229 0.082507 0.147734 0.282211 0.622318
2026-03-01 0.018270 0.029039 0.047548 0.084139 0.161599 0.338022 0.851540
2026-03-08 0.016032 0.026271 0.044605 0.082782 0.169343 0.385439 1.105810
2026-03-15 0.013669 0.022930 0.040048 0.077181 0.166156 0.405782 1.303774
2026-03-22 0.012399 0.021381 0.038624 0.077923 0.178715 0.477541 1.785495
2026-03-29 0.011487 0.020367 0.038079 0.080558 0.197622 0.583069 2.601455
2026-04-05 0.010505 0.019102 0.036864 0.081534 0.213363 0.694759 3.737420
2026-04-12 0.009626 0.017917 0.035616 0.082182 0.229045 0.824000 5.423060
2026-04-19 0.008690 0.016487 0.033587 0.080298 0.236187 0.928029 7.386750
2026-04-26 0.007768 0.014967 0.031105 0.076576 0.235691 0.999578 9.473214
2026-05-03 0.007202 0.014146 0.030147 0.077033 0.251434 1.180844 14.354698
2026-05-10 0.006708 0.013420 0.029298 0.077634 0.268662 1.401871 22.517712
2026-05-17 0.006317 0.012876 0.028817 0.079307 0.292090 1.712305 38.554414
2026-05-24 0.005949 0.012336 0.028257 0.080602 0.315288 2.077828 68.193963
2026-05-31 0.005508 0.011572 0.026978 0.079104 0.324373 2.350614 108.213397
2026-06-07 0.004969 0.010512 0.024742 0.073645 0.309964 2.370312 134.201330
2026-06-14 0.004696 0.010076 0.024179 0.074214 0.329692 2.826938 259.620582